[Estimation of the projections of incidence rates, prevalence and mortality due to prostate cancer in Aragon (Spain)].

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to project prostate cancer prevalence, incidence rates and mortality over a 15-year period going from 2008 to 2022 for the Aragon region of Spain. METHODS The projections were calculated using the MIAMOD PROGRAM. All-cause mortality due to prostate cancer for the baseline period of 1998 to 2007 was obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. RESULTS The prostate cancer incidence rates for the period 2008 to 2022 per 100,000 persons are projected to decrease from 47.57 to 26.68/100,000 (adjusted rates 24.9 to 12.93). Mortality will decrease from 21.89 to 11.73 (adjusted rates 10.89 to 5.83) and prevalence from 277.07 cases/ 100,000 per year to 125.09 (adjusted rates 165.54 to 63.41). CONCLUSIONS These projections indicate that the prostate cancer incidence and its mortality rate will decrease in Aragon (Spain).